November surprise: Romney heading to Pennsylvania on Sunday

http://twitter.com/#!/mollyesque/status/264102330075590656

While most of the MSM and many pundits obsesses over Ohio and its 18 electoral votes, the Romney campaign is making a strong bid for Pennsylvania and its 20 electoral votes. The Daily has the scoop:

Mitt Romney is set to make a last-minute campaign stop on Sunday in Pennsylvania, The Daily has learned.

Details are still being determined and with scheduling for the final days of the campaign still fluid, it’s possible Romney could still bypass the state. But two top Pennsylvania Republican officials and a Romney adviser said a large rally in the vote-rich southeastern part of the state is in the works for Sunday. The final decision is likely to be made on Friday.

…

The coming appearance by Romney would be his first since wrapping up the GOP nomination. It is also one of the most serious signs yet that his campaign views the state, which hasn’t voted for a Republican presidential candidate since 1988, as winnable. Rep. Paul Ryan is visiting the state on Saturday.

This comes on the heels of a major RNC ad buy in the Keystone state:

Bamm RNC just went up w $3 million+ ad buy in PA

— Sean Spicer (@seanspicer) November 1, 2012

Democrats and some MSM reporters say the GOP push to win Pennsylvania smacks of desperation or a “head fake.”

Romney camp desperate – putting up ads in PA and MN proves he’s struggling to find a new path to 270.

— Jim Messina (@Messina2012) October 30, 2012

But that assessment strikes savvy observers as spin or wishful thinking:

If the decision of R to buy in MN&PA was out of weakness for Romney, O wouldn’t be sending Clinton to MN, Biden to PA, or spending $ there.

— NumbersMuncher (@NumbersMuncher) October 30, 2012

The fact is, Pennsylvania is very winnable for Romney. Coal and fracking are major issues (both play to Romney’s strengths) and unemployment is above the national average.

A poll by Franklin & Marshall College, released yesterday, has President Obama ahead of Romney among likely voters by 4 points, 49-45. But take a look at the sample:

Democrat 50%
Republican: 37%
Other/Independent: 12%

That’s D+13, which is absurd. Turnout was just D+7 in 2008, according to exit polls.

Does anyone seriously believe Democrats will nearly double their turnout advantage from 2008, when Obama-mania was at its peak?

BHO up 4 in PA…in a D+13 poll. Good luck with that turnout, Barry. #tcot

— Mike Andrews (@mikeandrews09) October 31, 2012

@jamiedupree Franklin/Marshall Poll in PA has @mittromney within 4 with a D+13 Sample.. NOT GONNA HAPPEN.. GO ROMNEY !!edisk.fandm.edu/FLI/keystone/p…

— Bimbo Briscoe (@BimboBriscoe) October 31, 2012

The Franklin & Marshall poll says Romney is winning Independents by a whopping 16 points (48-32). If Democrats aren’t nervous, they should be.